National Organization for Marriage is increasingly irrelevant.The threat that they made this morning has a greater probability of pissing off people than actually changing any votes. In New York, NOM failed to unseat their top target for 2012, NOM’s claim:
In New York, same-sex marriage narrowly passed the state senate after four Republicans and two Democrats changed their votes in response to promises of campaign cash from gay marriage activists. NOM targeted all seven for defeat, and was successful in removing five of them, replacing them in 2012 with pro-family Senators.
NOM claims to have targeted seven of six. Getting past that bit of intellectual insolvency, campaign finance reports indicate that NOM only made meaningful cash contributions to three candidates. One of these was Reuben Diaz, a Democrat who voted against marriage equality. The other two were Kathy Marchione and Chuck Swanick. Marchione defeated Republican Roy McDonald who then ran as an independent. Swanick was handily defeated by NOM’s top target, Mark Grisanti. Sure, there were indirect efforts and contributions to unseat these folks. However, across the country Republicans lost to Democrats in a presidential election year.
Therefore, NOM was possibly responsible for defeating one Republican.
The rest is just mythology representing confusion between correlation and causation. More importantly, a state legislator works for the people of that state and his or her constituents. The people expect legislators to vote on the merits. The last time I checked, NOM did not legally employ a single state legislator.
NOM’s immediate problem seems to be critical mass. The
situation in Illinois, Delaware, Rhode Island and possibly other states
seems to confirm that blue state legislatures are in a rush to demonstrate their
As more states are added, it becomes increasingly preposterous to
claim that marriage equality has some mysterious effect on “traditional”
marriage. Thus, like most chain reactions, the energy increases. With a little help for the Supreme Court, by the end of 2013, roughly 40% of the citizens of the United States
could be living in equal marriage states. Some people we know are going
to need a new hobby.