Whatever is going to happen in Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado is going to happen. We will probably have to wait until late June. Yes, I have seen some tweets suggesting that Justice Kennedy was adversarial to our interests. I have seen and read coverage that is more ambiguous. Amy Howe at Scotusblog offered some additional insight:
But even if there are five votes in favor of Masterpiece, it’s not clear how or whether the justices will draw a line that respects the religious beliefs of people like Phillips without opening up a Pandora’s box that, as Justice Stephen Breyer put it, could “undermine every civil rights law since year 2.”
How would the even do that? If they work through that and find it impossible, then what? The point I am making is that we are going to see a great deal of speculation, particularly over today’s oral arguments. These will come from friends and the not-so-friendly. If you believe that this case is as important as I do and you are going to fret over the eventual ruling then you are going to need an endless supply of Xanax between now and June.
There are plenty of real, current issues that deserve our attention. Public attention and enough honest information could change outcomes. Nothing we do regarding Masterpiece will have any effect at all. If, in fact, Justice Kennedy is wavering, the other justices of the Court and, perhaps, his clerks, are the only people who can influence what he ultimately decides.