National Organization for Marriage. has created what it calls the Marriage Heroes Campaign which is nothing other than an attempt to get more money from more people. Brian S. Brown dishonestly suggests that giving money to NOM will influence the Supreme Court:
The importance of this nomination to the Supreme Court cannot be overstated. For the first time since the Court illegitimately redefined marriage in the Obergefell decision of 2015, NOM and all marriage supporters will have a clear path forward to restore marriage to our nation’s laws.
To ensure that we fully capitalize on the moment at hand, we are launching the Marriage Heroes campaign. Our objective is to recruit thousands of individuals who will commit to take specific actions to support the confirmation of a Supreme Court justice. We need a massive outpouring from the grassroots to ensure that control of the Supreme Court swings to our side.
Regardless of anything that NOM does, the Court is going to become more conservative on some matters.
I continue to believe that, no matter who is on the Court, Obergefell is not going to be overturned. Other than conservative Christian disapproval there is simply no reason to overturn Obergefell. As Professor Jonathan Adler explains (for Volokh Conspiracy):
In tomorrow’s WSJ [Monday], the Cato Institute’s Walter Olson explains why the Supreme Court’s landmark decision in OBergefell v. Hodges is not at risk of being overturned, no matter who replaces Justice Kennedy on the Court. He identifies eight reasons, some doctrinal, some political, and some pragmatic why this is so — and he’s right. The traditional bases for overturning precedent would not counsel overturning Obergefell, a case asking the Court to revisit the Obergefell holding is unlikely, and it is even more unlikely that more than one or two justices on the Court would have any interest in revisiting that case even if they were presented the opportunity. As Olson notes, “gay marriage isn’t going anywhere.”
A Red State might sue based on states’ rights. Two or three years from now that might hit the Supreme Court. I doubt (like Adler) that the Court would even entertain hearing a case. Of course I never thought that the Court would hear Masterpiece Cakeshop so anything is possible.
NOM has no effect on the confirmation process; no effect on which cases the Supreme Court will hear and no effect on Supreme Court deliberations. This is just a dishonest means of attracting some money to keep NOM in business so that they can continue to beg for donations to keep it in business in order to pay Brian S. Brown.